Index Futures – Projected Range & Objectives

Index Futures – Projected Range & Objectives is an ICT framework for anticipating how the daily range of an index market may develop across the New York AM session, lunch hour and PM session. Michael J. Huddleston, the founder of ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, teaches traders to classify the trading day into a small number of recurring profiles based on institutional order flow, higher-time-frame PD Arrays and liquidity objectives.

This concept is taught in the 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 10.

The projected range is not a guaranteed prediction of every candle. It is a structured expectation of how price may move from one liquidity objective to another during the trading day.

As Michael J. Huddleston explains:

“These are my general classifications of how I interpret how the daily range should fulfill for the indices.”

The framework simplifies index trading by helping traders determine whether the day is likely to trend, reverse between sessions or remain trapped in a consolidation profile.

What Is a Projected Range in Index Futures?

A projected range is an expected intraday price-delivery pattern.

It attempts to answer several important questions:

• Will both New York sessions move in the same direction?
• Will the AM session reverse during the PM session?
• Will price remain inside a consolidation?
• Which session high or low is likely to be taken?
• Is price seeking buy-side or sell-side liquidity?
• Will price finish the day near its high or low?
• Is a higher-time-frame PD Array likely to stop the move?

The model divides the New York day into three main periods:

• AM session
• New York Lunch
• PM session

The lunch period usually consolidates with shallow retracements. The larger directional movements are typically found in the AM or PM sessions.

ICT uses eight broad projected range profiles to classify most index trading days.

The Role of Institutional Order Flow

Institutional order flow provides the directional foundation for the projected range.

The main charts used to establish institutional order flow are:

• Daily chart
• Four-hour chart
• Weekly chart when necessary

Bullish institutional order flow may be present when:

• Price respects bullish order blocks
• Discount PD Arrays support price
• Bearish reference points are being broken
• Buy-side liquidity remains the higher-time-frame objective
• Price is in the middle of an unfinished bullish swing

Bearish institutional order flow may be present when:

• Price respects bearish order blocks
• Premium PD Arrays resist price
• Bullish reference points are being broken
• Sell-side liquidity remains the higher-time-frame objective
• Price is in the middle of an unfinished bearish swing

When institutional order flow is unclear, a consolidation profile becomes more likely.

The Importance of Premium and Discount

The projected range depends heavily on whether price is trading at premium or discount.

When price is bullish and trades into discount, the trader may anticipate:

• AM rally
• Two-session up close
• Sell-side liquidity sweep before expansion
• PM continuation

When price is bearish and trades into premium, the trader may anticipate:

• AM decline
• Two-session down close
• Buy-side liquidity sweep before expansion
• PM continuation

However, when price approaches an opposing higher-time-frame PD Array, the session may reverse.

For example:

• A bullish AM move may reverse from a four-hour Premium Array.
• A bearish AM move may reverse from a daily Discount Array.
• A PM retracement may return to a higher-time-frame order block and resume the original trend.

The time frame of the PD Array is extremely important.

A 15-minute reference point may not stop a move that is being driven toward a daily objective.

Liquidity Is the Primary Objective

Index futures are heavily influenced by the location of stops.

The projected range framework focuses on where buy stops and sell stops are likely to rest.

Common buy-side liquidity objectives include:

• London high
• Overnight high
• AM session high
• Lunch-hour high
• Previous-day high
• Relative equal highs
• Intraday high

Common sell-side liquidity objectives include:

• London low
• Overnight low
• AM session low
• Lunch-hour low
• Previous-day low
• Relative equal lows
• Intraday low

Huddleston explains:

“On an intraday basis, you have to understand it’s all about liquidity and where the stops are.”

The projected range is therefore not based only on trend direction. It is based on the path price may take while seeking liquidity.

The Eight ICT Projected Range Profiles

The ICT model uses eight general profiles:

1. Two-Session Up Close
2. Two-Session Down Close
3. AM Rally, PM Reversal
4. AM Decline, PM Reversal
5. Consolidation, AM Rally, PM Decline
6. Consolidation, AM Decline, PM Rally
7. Strong Bullish Expansion Through Lunch
8. Strong Bearish Expansion Through Lunch

The final two are extensions of the two-session trending profiles, where price does not pause meaningfully during lunch.

Two-Session Up Close

The Two-Session Up Close is a strongly bullish daily profile.

The general conditions include:

• Daily institutional order flow is bullish
• Four-hour institutional order flow is bullish
• Price has not reached a major opposing Premium Array
• Buy-side liquidity remains the objective
• The market is in the middle of a bullish swing

AM Session

The AM Trend typically returns to a Discount Array and then rallies.

Possible bullish reference points include:

• Bullish order block
• Bullish fair value gap
• Discount portion of the opening range
• Sell-side liquidity sweep
• Previous intraday low

Lunch Hour

Price usually consolidates with shallow retracements.

However, on a very strong bullish day, price may continue higher through lunch without forming a clear range.

PM Session

The PM Trend may:

• Run below lunch-hour lows
• Sweep short-term sell stops
• Return to a Discount Array
• Rally into the close

The PM move may produce a second leg approximately equal to the AM expansion.

A common structure is:

1. AM bullish expansion
2. Lunch consolidation
3. PM liquidity sweep
4. Second bullish expansion

Two-Session Down Close

The Two-Session Down Close is the bearish opposite of the Two-Session Up Close.

The general conditions include:

• Daily institutional order flow is bearish
• Four-hour institutional order flow is bearish
• Price has not reached a major opposing Discount Array
• Sell-side liquidity remains the objective
• The market is in the middle of a bearish swing

AM Session

The AM Trend may return to a Premium Array and then decline.

Possible bearish reference points include:

• Bearish order block
• Bearish fair value gap
• Premium portion of the opening range
• Buy-side liquidity sweep
• Previous intraday high

Lunch Hour

Price generally consolidates with shallow retracements.

On a very strong bearish day, price may continue lower through lunch without forming a meaningful consolidation.

PM Session

The PM Trend may:

• Run above lunch-hour highs
• Sweep buy stops
• Return to a Premium Array
• Decline into the close

This can form a second bearish leg approximately equal to the AM move.

Strong Trending Days Through Lunch

The lunch-hour consolidation is a general expectation, not an absolute rule.

A strong economic surprise or major institutional catalyst can cause price to continue expanding through lunch.

A strong bullish day may:

• Rally from the AM open
• Continue through 11:00
• Ignore shallow retracements
• Trade higher through lunch
• Close near the high

A strong bearish day may:

• Decline from the AM open
• Continue through 11:00
• Ignore shallow retracements
• Trade lower through lunch
• Close near the low

The trader should not sell simply because the market has entered lunch during a strongly bullish day.

Likewise, the trader should not buy merely because a bearish move has continued into the midday period.

The strength of the catalyst and higher-time-frame objective must be considered.

AM Rally, PM Reversal

The AM Rally, PM Reversal profile begins with bullish institutional order flow but develops near a higher-time-frame Premium Array.

The market may still have enough bullish momentum to rally during the morning, but the higher-time-frame resistance can stop the move and create an afternoon reversal.

General Conditions

• Daily or four-hour order flow is bullish
• Price is approaching a four-hour or daily Premium Array
• The bullish swing is close to completion
• The AM move can reach the higher-time-frame objective

AM Session

Price may:

• Return to a Discount Array
• Sweep sell-side liquidity
• Rally into the higher-time-frame Premium Array
• Form the morning high

Lunch Hour

Price consolidates with shallow retracements.

PM Session

The PM Trend may:

• Run above the lunch-hour high
• Run above the AM high
• Sweep buy-side liquidity
• Reverse lower into the close

The afternoon does not always need to form a new daily high.

It may only sweep the lunch-hour high and create a lower high relative to the AM session.

When the PM Session Can Resume Higher

An AM Rally, PM Reversal profile does not always end bearish.

The PM decline may return to the same higher-time-frame Discount Array that caused the AM rally.

If the AM session originally rallied from:

• Four-hour bullish order block
• Daily bullish order block
• Weekly Discount Array
• Higher-time-frame bullish breaker

then price may return to that level during the PM session and rally again.

If the AM rally began only from a lower-time-frame reference point, such as a 15-minute fair value gap, the PM decline is more likely to trade through it.

The key filter is the time frame of the supporting PD Array.

AM Decline, PM Reversal

The AM Decline, PM Reversal profile is the bearish opposite of the AM Rally, PM Reversal.

The market begins with bearish institutional order flow but is approaching a higher-time-frame Discount Array.

General Conditions

• Daily or four-hour order flow is bearish
• Price remains above a higher-time-frame Discount Array
• The bearish swing is close to completion
• The AM move may reach the higher-time-frame objective

AM Session

Price may:

• Return to a Premium Array
• Sweep buy-side liquidity
• Decline into the higher-time-frame Discount Array
• Form the AM low

Lunch Hour

Price generally consolidates with shallow retracements.

PM Session

The PM Trend may:

• Run below the lunch-hour low
• Run below the AM low
• Sweep sell-side liquidity
• Reverse higher into the close

The afternoon move may only sweep the lunch low rather than form a lower low beneath the AM session.

When the PM Session Can Resume Lower

The AM premium reference point may be revisited during the PM session.

If the AM decline began from a higher-time-frame Premium Array, price may recapitalize that same level during the afternoon and resume lower.

Examples include:

• Four-hour bearish order block
• Daily bearish order block
• Weekly Premium Array
• Higher-time-frame bearish breaker

If the AM move began from only a lower-time-frame premium reference point, price may trade through it and continue higher during the PM reversal.

Again, the higher-time-frame context determines whether the level is likely to hold.

Consolidation, AM Rally, PM Decline

This projected range is common when institutional order flow is neutral or unclear.

The market is not strongly predisposed to trend higher or lower.

It may produce an AM rally followed by a PM decline.

Typical Conditions

• Daily and four-hour direction are unclear
• Price is near equilibrium
• No strong higher-time-frame draw is obvious
• There is little high-impact news
• There is no major afternoon catalyst
• The market remains liquidity-driven rather than trend-driven

AM Session

The AM Trend may:

• Return to a Discount Array
• Rally from equilibrium
• Run London buy stops
• Run an intraday high
• Reach a short-term Premium Array

Lunch Hour

Price consolidates with shallow retracements.

PM Session

The PM Trend may:

• Run the lunch-hour high
• Run the AM high
• Sweep buy stops
• Decline toward sell-side liquidity
• Target London or intraday lows

The exact PM high depends on whether the AM session already reached a meaningful higher-time-frame Premium Array.

Lunch High or Intraday High?

The afternoon reversal does not always need to run the entire AM high.

If the AM session already traded into a higher-time-frame Premium Array, the PM session may only sweep the lunch-hour high before declining.

That higher-time-frame level may already have been defended.

If the AM session did not reach a meaningful Premium Array, the afternoon may run the full intraday high before reversing.

The trader should ask:

• Did the AM rally reach hourly resistance?
• Did it reach a four-hour Premium Array?
• Did it reach a daily bearish order block?
• Is buy-side liquidity still available above the AM high?

The answer helps determine the PM objective.

Consolidation, AM Decline, PM Rally

This is the opposite neutral profile.

Institutional order flow is uncertain, and the market first declines during the AM session before reversing higher in the afternoon.

AM Session

The AM Trend may:

• Return to a Premium Array
• Decline from equilibrium
• Run London sell stops
• Run intraday lows
• Reach a short-term Discount Array

Lunch Hour

Price consolidates with shallow retracements.

PM Session

The PM Trend may:

• Run the lunch-hour low
• Run the AM low
• Sweep sell-side liquidity
• Rally toward buy-side liquidity
• Target London or intraday highs

Lunch Low or Intraday Low?

If the AM decline reaches a higher-time-frame Discount Array, the PM session may only sweep the lunch-hour low before reversing higher.

If the AM move does not reach an important Discount Array, the PM session may run the entire intraday low before rallying.

The relevant questions are:

• Did the AM decline reach an hourly bullish array?
• Did it enter a four-hour Discount Array?
• Did it reach a daily bullish order block?
• Is sell-side liquidity still available below the AM low?

These conditions help define the likely afternoon objective.

Consolidation Is Not Always Seek and Destroy

Neutral projected ranges should not automatically be classified as Seek and Destroy profiles.

A normal consolidation day may simply move back and forth between short-term liquidity pools.

Typical characteristics include:

• AM expansion in one direction
• Lunch-hour consolidation
• PM expansion in the opposite direction
• No sustained higher-time-frame trend
• Lack of strong economic catalysts
• Repeated stop runs within the daily range

Seek and Destroy conditions are more aggressive and unpredictable, particularly around major events such as Non-Farm Payrolls.

A neutral consolidation profile is simply a balanced market seeking nearby stops.

The Importance of New York Lunch

The New York Lunch period is the most consistent part of the projected range framework.

On most profiles, lunch is expected to produce:

• Consolidation
• Shallow retracement
• Reduced momentum
• Short-term highs and lows
• Liquidity that may be targeted in the PM session

Lunch-hour highs and lows become useful PM objectives.

On bullish days, the PM session may first run lunch lows.

On bearish days, the PM session may first run lunch highs.

On reversal days, lunch liquidity may be swept before price changes direction.

The main exception is a powerful trending day driven by a strong catalyst.

Equal-Distance Measured Moves

Two-session trending days may produce a measured-move structure.

For example, a bullish day can form:

• First leg higher during the AM session
• Lunch-hour consolidation
• Second leg higher during the PM session

The second leg may travel approximately the same distance as the first.

A bearish day may form:

• First leg lower during the AM session
• Lunch consolidation
• Second leg lower during the PM session

This projection provides a potential objective, but it should not be used blindly.

The measured move should agree with:

• Higher-time-frame liquidity
• PD Arrays
• Previous highs or lows
• Daily range expectations
• Institutional order flow

How to Build a Daily Projected Range

Step 1: Establish Daily and Four-Hour Order Flow

Determine whether the market is:

• Bullish
• Bearish
• Neutral
• Approaching an opposing PD Array

Step 2: Mark Higher-Time-Frame PD Arrays

Identify:

• Daily order blocks
• Four-hour order blocks
• Daily fair value gaps
• Four-hour fair value gaps
• Premium and Discount Arrays
• Weekly support and resistance

Step 3: Identify the Higher-Time-Frame Draw

Determine whether price is seeking:

• Buy-side liquidity
• Sell-side liquidity
• Premium
• Discount
• Previous daily high
• Previous daily low
• Weekly high or low

Step 4: Review the News Calendar

A strong catalyst may support:

• Two-session up close
• Two-session down close
• Expansion through lunch

A lack of news may favour:

• AM rally, PM decline
• AM decline, PM rally
• Consolidation

Step 5: Analyse the AM Session

Watch whether price first returns to:

• Discount before rallying
• Premium before declining
• Equilibrium before expanding
• Overnight or London liquidity

Step 6: Observe the Lunch Profile

Determine whether lunch is:

• Consolidating
• Forming shallow retracements
• Continuing a strong trend
• Creating liquidity for the PM session

Step 7: Project the PM Objective

The PM session may seek:

• Lunch high
• Lunch low
• AM high
• AM low
• London high
• London low
• Daily liquidity objective

Bullish Two-Session Projected Range

A bullish projected range may develop as follows:

1. Daily and four-hour order flow are bullish.
2. Price has not reached a major Premium Array.
3. The AM session sweeps sell-side liquidity.
4. Price trades into a Discount Array.
5. Bullish displacement forms.
6. Price rallies into lunch.
7. Lunch consolidates with shallow retracements.
8. The PM session runs lunch lows.
9. Price enters a fair-value Discount Array.
10. Price rallies toward buy-side liquidity.
11. The market closes near its high.

Bearish Two-Session Projected Range

A bearish projected range may develop as follows:

1. Daily and four-hour order flow are bearish.
2. Price has not reached a major Discount Array.
3. The AM session sweeps buy-side liquidity.
4. Price trades into a Premium Array.
5. Bearish displacement forms.
6. Price declines into lunch.
7. Lunch consolidates with shallow retracements.
8. The PM session runs lunch highs.
9. Price enters a fair-value Premium Array.
10. Price declines toward sell-side liquidity.
11. The market closes near its low.

Bullish AM, Bearish PM Model

A bullish AM and bearish PM profile may include:

1. Higher-time-frame order flow remains bullish.
2. Price is close to a four-hour Premium Array.
3. The AM session trades into discount.
4. Price rallies toward the Premium Array.
5. The AM high forms.
6. Lunch consolidates.
7. The PM session runs lunch highs or the AM high.
8. Buy-side liquidity is taken.
9. Bearish displacement forms.
10. Price declines into the close.

Bearish AM, Bullish PM Model

A bearish AM and bullish PM profile may include:

1. Higher-time-frame order flow remains bearish.
2. Price is close to a daily Discount Array.
3. The AM session trades into premium.
4. Price declines toward the Discount Array.
5. The AM low forms.
6. Lunch consolidates.
7. The PM session runs lunch lows or the AM low.
8. Sell-side liquidity is taken.
9. Bullish displacement forms.
10. Price rallies into the close.

Common Projected Range Mistakes

Treating the Profile as Guaranteed

The projected range is a framework, not a fixed script.

Unexpected news or institutional repricing can alter the profile.

Ignoring Higher-Time-Frame PD Arrays

An intraday trend may reverse when it reaches a daily or four-hour opposing array.

Assuming Lunch Must Always Consolidate

Strong trending days can continue through lunch.

Automatically Trading Both Sessions

Not every PM session creates a quality setup.

The AM move may complete the full daily range.

Ignoring the Time Frame of an Order Block

A lower-time-frame order block may not hold against a daily objective.

Expecting the PM Session to Run the AM Extreme

Sometimes the PM move only needs to run lunch-hour liquidity.

Misclassifying Neutral Conditions

When institutional order flow is unclear, do not force a trend-day profile.

Ignoring the News Calendar

The presence or absence of a market catalyst can help distinguish a trending day from a consolidation profile.

Index Futures – Projected Range & Objectives Checklist

Before projecting the daily range, confirm:

• Is daily institutional order flow bullish, bearish or neutral?
• What is the four-hour directional bias?
• Is price near a higher-time-frame Premium or Discount Array?
• Is the current swing complete or unfinished?
• Where are the London high and low?
• Where are the AM session highs and lows?
• What liquidity formed during lunch?
• Is important economic news scheduled?
• Is the day likely to trend through lunch?
• Did the AM session reach a higher-time-frame PD Array?
• Should the PM session target lunch liquidity or the full intraday extreme?
• Is the market seeking buy stops or sell stops?
• Is there a valid measured-move objective?
• Has price already completed most of the daily range?
• Does the projected profile agree with institutional order flow?

Final Thoughts

Index Futures – Projected Range & Objectives gives traders a practical structure for anticipating how the New York trading day may unfold.

The model organises price action into:

• AM Trend
• Lunch-hour consolidation
• PM Trend

The direction of the projected range is guided by:

• Daily institutional order flow
• Four-hour institutional order flow
• Premium and Discount Arrays
• Higher-time-frame liquidity
• Market catalysts
• Session highs and lows

A strongly bullish market may produce a Two-Session Up Close.

A strongly bearish market may produce a Two-Session Down Close.

A market approaching an opposing PD Array may rally in the morning and reverse in the afternoon, or decline in the morning and reverse higher during the PM session.

When the broader direction is unclear, the market may simply trade from one side of the daily range to the other while hunting short-term stops.

As Michael J. Huddleston explains:

“There’s only eight projected ranges that I use for the S&P, and it makes it very simple to anticipate what it is that I should be seeing.”

The purpose of the framework is not to predict each candle. It is to create a realistic expectation of which liquidity pools price may target and how the AM and PM sessions may work together to complete the daily range.

All examples and concepts discussed here are for educational and paper-trading purposes. Index futures trading involves substantial risk, and no projected range or liquidity model can guarantee future results.